How to predict the market?

Forecast is a probabilistic judgment about the future state of the object of study.

In our case, it is required to predict the change in the value of some currencies in relation to others. In turn, changes in the price of currency quotes occur due to the influence of various factors on them, which are the starting point for forecasting the market in various types of analysis.


In a fundamental analysis, economic, social and political events that can affect the value of the national currency are taken into account. For example, news about the increase or decrease in the interest rate of the Central Bank, the economic indicators of the most important sectors of the economy (the cost of a barrel of oil in Russia), the unemployment rate in the country and others can have an impact. Do not forget that the fundamental factors include not only economic indicators, but also events from the social and political sphere of the country: prolonged street riots, terrorist threats, natural disasters or military operations can also have a strong impact on the country's economy and, accordingly, on the course its national currency.


In the technical analysis, they do not consider the causes and events that affect the change in the value of currencies, but study on the graphs the movement of prices in a historical perspective in order to predict their movement in the future. An important task of technical analysis is to identify the current trend in the market. Regardless of which direction the trend is heading - falling prices or its growth - you can make profitable transactions by opening your positions in the direction of the existing trend. For a detailed study of currency charts, figures are used. Depending on which of the known figures of technical analysis is formed on the chart, you can assume a further change in price.

Both methods are closely interconnected: analysis is the study of price movements on charts, while the fundamental one is formed on the basis of events (political, economic, social) that affect the supply and demand of a particular currency. Fundamental factors influence the mood of the market, while technical analysis helps us visualize it and use it for forecasting.

There is no exact science on the market that allows you to give 100% forecasts, and successful traders do not have the mystical power to predict the future. At the same time, they can correctly interpret the analysis data obtained from economic news and remember the key rule of technical analysis - «Trend is your friend!»


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